Evaluation of the Risk Factors Impacting the Cost Overruns in the Evaluation of the Risk Factors Impacting the Cost Overruns in the Construction of Roads in Egypt during the COVID-19 Pandemic Construction of Roads in Egypt during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cost overruns are a common problem in the global construction industry, which affects the development of road construction, particularly in developing countries. Moreover, many risk factors in road construction might result in project cost overruns, particularly during COVID-19. So, the research aimed to look into the new risk variables ' severity when a corona virus infection was present. The primary goal of the study is to identify the most important risk variables affecting the construction of roads in Egypt, especially during COVID-19 to lessen the likelihood and impact of those risks. The likelihood and effects of the identi ﬁ ed risks were determined by conducting a questionnaire survey on a set of 11 risk categories made up of 162 risks. The study ' s ﬁ ndings also indicate that the excessive and illegal loads on the roads, the ﬂ uctuating value of the Egyptian pound, and the accruing interest on loans to the contractor as a result of the work interruption caused by the corona virus are the high-risk factors that have the greatest impact on cost overruns for road projects. In addition, the cost matrix has also been used to display risk factor levels as a road map for responding quickly to high risks.


Introduction
C ost overruns are a frequent issue in the world's construction sector, which has an impact on the growth of road construction, especially in emerging nations (Donaldson, 2018).Moreover, several road construction risk factors could cause project cost overruns, especially during COVID-19.As far as we know, no previous research has investigated the effect of the corona virus on the cost overruns in the construction of roads in Egypt.Therefore, a broad range of risk factors was examined in the study to demonstrate how severe its impacts were, particularly during COVID-19.In addition, risk breakdown structures [RBS] have separated the risk factors into eleven groups.The RBS in the study includes operational, equipment, and the effects of the corona virus, as well as contract, design, material, owner, labor, contractor, and consultant.The research methodology starts with a comprehensive literature review to provide a list of the main risk factors.A final risk factor list also includes the factors that experts added especially during COVID-19.Therefore, the primary goal of this article is to identify the most important risk variables affecting the construction of roads in Egypt, especially during COVID-19 to lessen the likelihood and impact of those risks.The likelihood and effects of the identified risks were determined by conducting a questionnaire survey on a set of 11 risk categories made up of 162 risks.The cost matrix has also been employed as a tool for displaying the levels of risk factors, and as a result, it may be utilized to develop a road map for generating speedy responses for high risks.

Literature review
Cost overruns are seen as an event or disturbance that pushes the project's cost over the budget.It may also result in estimates of time and cost that are incorrect.It can also be brought on by the absence of a thorough strategy to risk management.Project risk management refers to the procedures used in risk management planning, identification, analysis, responses, and project monitoring and control (Project Management, 2017).And, the goal of project risk management [RM] is to identify and prioritize risks that are likely to take place, focus on providing guidelines for risk response, and direct and manage project risks by raising the possibility and impact of the occurrence of favorable events (opportunities) and reducing the likelihood and impact of the occurrence of unfavorable events (threats) to the project (Borge, 2002).However, several projects are not prepared to manage risk because most firms' current project management methods do not take into account the expanding demands for risk management (Smith et al., 2014).There are several severe constraints to risk management methods used in project management.These constraints contain: A) the amount of time needed to use risk management techniques; B) Collecting input estimations and evaluating likelihood might be difficult; C) Organizational and individual reluctance to change D) inability to comprehend and evaluate results of risk management methods (Leung et al., 1998).The risk breakdown structures (RBS) can be used as a checklist to ensure that all risk sources are covered during risk identification, which speeds up the process.The RBS also offers a categorization of the discovered risks according to their sources, enabling the project team to give some risk sources more focus than others as they are more frequent in the project.
The size of the project, the expansion of the project's scope, inflation, the amount of time required to finish the project, the incompleteness of initial engineering and quantity surveys, external delays, the complexity of administrative structures, and the lack of management staff experience are the causes that lead to cost escalation.Also, the factors that contribute to cost escalation are project location, project specifics, environmental mitigation costs, work halts, strikes, bid expiration, stress from the local government, and political turbulence (Schexnayder et al., 2003).Mansfield showed that ineffective contract management, poor planning, faulty estimating, and general price fluctuations are the main causes of cost escalation (Mansfield et al., 1994).
Cost overruns affect the development of road construction, particularly in developing countries.Moreover, many risk factors in road construction might result in project cost overruns.Cost overruns can happen for a variety of reasons on different kinds of projects.If project costs end up being higher than anticipated, the funding profile would no longer be compatible with the demands of the budget.The consequences would be negative, especially for developing nations whose prosperity is measured in large part by how well they succeed in providing infrastructure through the construction industry, particularly on road construction projects, which make up a significant portion of the business (Kaliba et al., 2009).Most developing economies also deal with this issue; it does not only affect wealthy nations (Ahmed et al., 2002).Cost escalation is the phrase used to describe the increase in the sum of money needed to build a road project above and beyond the initially planned amount.Cost escalation happens when real expenses are higher than originally anticipated values.Schexnayder looked at some of the factors that contribute to cost growth and divided them into two categories: Uncontrollable and restraining factors (Schexnayder et al., 2003).Other investigations determined that issues including delays in land acquisition, unanticipated difficulties with the supply of raw materials, and illegal encroachment on land even during project implementation were to blame for the cost (Datta, 2002;Flyvbjerg et al., 2002).
To give stakeholders tools for risk identification, many researchers studied the factors that contribute to risks in the construction sector.Ehsan and Mirza illustrated risk factors common to the construction business, including time pressure, resource availability, history, design complexity, experience, management stability, and team size.Ehsan and Mirza categorize construction risks into technical, logistical, management, environmental, financial, and sociopolitical categories (Ehsan et al., 2010).On the other hand, technical, logistical, management, environmental, economic, social, and political risks were categorized as construction risks by Ehsan and Mirza (Tang et al., 2007).Yasser and Mostafa used fault tree analysis to pinpoint the primary factor causing building project delays (Gamal and Abd Elrazek, 2020).Additionally, inefficiencies in risk management lead to schedule and expense overruns (Raftery, 2003).Numerous studies have concentrated on creating approaches that take the effects of uncertainty on project cost overruns into account (Ammar et al., 2022;Leu et al., 2023;Osama et al., 2023;Vivek and Rao, 2022).
The primary goal of the study is to identify the most important risk variables affecting the construction of roads in Egypt, especially during COVID-19 to lessen the likelihood and impact of those risks.Therefore, the study has created a framework that will enable organizations to take the following actions in order to manage the risk factors that lead to cost overruns in Egyptian road projects: A framework contain: stage I: risk identification, stage II: risk assessment (evaluate risk factors in road construction projects and identify the biggest ones); Thorough involved literature review on risk management in relation to roads conducted in order to develop a questionnaire.Additionally, this list was expanded with the help of experts to include all potential risk factors for road construction projects.Also, it outlines the risks by surveying a panel of experts from various construction sectors using a questionnaire.Furthermore, Fig. 1 depicts the process of risk analysis for the attributes that affect the construction of roads in Egypt.The qualitative risk analysis was used to identify the high-risk factors for each category, followed by the cost matrix was employed to establish the different levels of risk for each category.After that, a risk response plan has been identified as an appropriate action for highrisk factors.Moreover, different scenarios have been chosen as a strategy for figuring out the best action for risks.

Research methodology
The suggested study analyses each identified risk and uses interviews and pre-structured questionnaires on a set of 11 risk categories made up of 162 risks to elicit the specific risk with as much expert opinion as possible.The cost matrix has also been employed as a tool for displaying the levels of risk factors, and as a result, it may be utilized to develop a road map for generating speedy responses for high risks.This can be done by taking the following actions.
(1) The research technique begins with a thorough literature analysis to give a prime risk factors list.This list was then supplemented with experience to produce a final risk factor list that encompasses all potential risks during road building.(2) A brainstorming-directed questionnaire has been used to solicit the most prevalent risks facing road projects in Egypt.The impacts of each risk and its likelihood have been suggested by experts.
(3) The risk factors (RF) can be divided into several categories based on their attributes and kind.As a result, it can create RBS, which is a component of the risk management plan.A stratified classification of risks and the establishment of a nomenclature for characterizing project risks are based on the hierarchical risk breakdown structure that has been created.With the use of the HRBS, risks can be divided into those that are concerned with the control of the sources of risk factors.(4) Finding the mean after obtaining the total probabilities for each risk from the questionnaires has been employed to calculate the value of probability.Additionally, the same approach can be used to determine the impact.(5) Prioritizing identified risks based on risk score estimations created by calculating the cost impact and evaluating the probability of occurrence.(6) Examining the prospective responses offered by experts to risks and selecting the most appropriate response even as a corrective or preventive action.
Moreover, the risk category is included in the risk management plan.Whereas, the risk can be categorized using the risk breakdown structure (RBS) based on its attributes.As well, it displays a hierarchical chart that divides the project risks into higher-level and lower-level groups.As a result, the  study divided the risks related to Egyptian road construction into eleven groups.These groups contain consultant, design, equipment, material, owner, contract, contractor, labor, external (corona virus effects), external (others), and operational.This phase is useful for figuring out the total risk factors (RF) associated with road projects.And, it has been created before risk identification.The risk of breakdown structure has been shown in Fig. 2.
They perform qualitative risk analysis process analyses and prioritize project risks based on the characteristics of each individually identified risk.The perform qualitative risk analysis process examines and ranks the characteristics of individual risks before prioritizing them according to those characteristics (Guide, 2001).Its objective is to rate and categorize the identified risks according to their impact (I) and probability of occurrence (P) to conduct a further study or take appropriate action.Consequently, high-priority risks in terms of threats are thought to be a key emphasis of the plan risk response process.Also, the following steps ought to be part of the analytical process: A subjective risk probability (P) value has been created using a scale from 0 to 1.In addition to producing a risk impact (I) on a scale, the standard impact evaluation approach for cost impacts is also produced, as illustrated in Table 1.Finding the mean after obtaining the total probabilities for each risk from the questionnaires has been employed to calculate the value of probability.Additionally, the same approach can be used to determine the impact.To get the risk score (RS), multiply the probability (P) by the impact (I).Following the risk score values assigned to each risk, risks are ranked and prioritized (RR).Using the likelihood and impact matrix presented in Table 2 (Guide, 2001), the risk factors have been categorized into high (H), moderate (M), and low (L) risks.The selection of high and moderate risks follows to get a response action.

Data collection
Making a sample questionnaire is the first step in the data collection and questionnaire design procedures.A pilot study was carried out on Egyptian

Reliability analysis
The random sample was determined using Eq. ( 1) by (Hogg et al., 2009) in order to obtain a demonstration sample of the targeted participants.Where (n) refers to a limited sample size, (m) to an unlimited population sample size, and (N) to the largest population sample size that is currently available.Due to the lack of specific information or data regarding the owners, contractors, consultants, managers, and site engineers of road construction companies, the owner, contractors, and consulting firms are chosen.Hence, 600 specialists from various companies are the estimated total number of experts.Equation No. ( 2) is used to calculate the m value, and Z is the statistical value used to represent the used confidence level.Z can be different according to the level of confidence, where Z is equal to 1.645, which represents a 90% confidence level.It can be 1.96, which represents a 95% confidence level.On the other hand, the values of Z can reach 2.575 to represent a high confidence level with a percentage of 99%.P represented the calculated population proportion, while (e) represented the point estimate sampling error.
To acquire the necessary sample size (Sincich et al., 2001), proposed using 0.50 as a cautious

Áz60
The above equation indicates that the required minimum sample size is (60).

Total risk score
The risk rating (RR) has been established using the risk score (RS).However, the total risk score (TRS) for each primary risk category has been determined as the total of all risk scores for that category divided by the number (n) of risk factors in each category.In descending order, the following risk categories were given the highest priority: operational, external (corona virus effects), external (others), contract, equipment, material, contractor, design, owner, labor, and consultant, with TRS of 0.212, 0.147, 0.139, 0.125, 0.124, 0.114, 0.103, 0.099, 0.089, 0.082, and 0.070, respectively, as shown in Fig. 4. In conclusion, the biggest influences on cost overruns of road projects are operational risk and external risk brought on by the impact of the corona virus.
Therefore, the following are the high-risk factors that impact the project cost: Excessive and illegal

Risk response plan
The goal of the risk response planning phase is to provide choices and specify appropriate measures to address threats, reduce them, and explore opportunities while taking into account the importance of individual and global risks to the project.An overview of the risk response strategies created for the project risks, as well as the monitoring and control of the identified risks, are shown in Tables 3e13.
The low risks are ignored and the total number of low risks is 16 risk.Only high and moderate risks are expected to necessitate a response, and each risk should have a solution to maximize risk response efforts.Threats can be handled in four different ways; Avoidance (AV.): removing the threat by removing its source; mitigation (MIT.):lowering the risk score by minimizing its likelihood of happening and/or effect; transference (TR.): transferring the risk package to a different party by subcontracting or purchasing insurance who is better equipped to manage the risk; Acceptance (ACC.): applying contingency reserves Tables 3e13 demonstrates that the project management team prepared the appropriate risk responses in some circumstances to guard against the likelihood of a delay in the initial risk response or an unexpected outcome.As a result, 20 avoidance strategies, 89 mitigation plans, 2 transference plans, and 35 acceptance plans were created.

Cost matrix
Cost matrices can be used to display the various risk levels (high, medium, and low).As illustrated in Figs.5e15, the curves can be used to determine the different risk levels [high, medium, low].All points above the HR-curve is high risks.And the points between HR-curve and MR-curve is the medium risks.Finally, we neglect that the points under MRcurve are low risks.Additionally, it can be regarded as a useful tool for identifying the primary risk so that immediate action can be taken for the priority risks.Therefore, it could be the next step after determining the risk score.
A visual basic program for an Excel spreadsheet was created to construct the cost matrix for all risk categories.And, it can be used as a tool to update the risk score periodically to measure the highest and lowest risk during the project life cycle.It helps expedite the appropriate action during the execution of the project.

Discussion, analysis, and practical implications
Only medium and high risk situations are addressed in a risk response plan, which should For consultant: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for six factors (Cons. 3,Cons. 6,Cons. 10,Cons. 11,Cons. 12,and Cons. 13), mitigation for five factors (Cons. 1,Cons. 2,Cons.4,Cons. 5,and Cons. 14)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of a consultant is avoidance and mitigation which can be represented 54.55% and 45.45%, respectively of the other risk response plans.
For equipment: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [mitigation for twelve factors from (Equ.1: Equ.12)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of equipment is mitigation which can be represented 100% of the other risk response plans.
For the material: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for one factor (Matr. 1), mitigation for eleven factors from (Matr.2: Matr.5) and from (Matr.7: Matr.13), and acceptance for one factor (Co. 19)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of material is mitigation which can be represented 84.62% of the other risk response plans.
For the owner: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for three factors (Own. 1, Own. 2, and Own.12), mitigation for fifteen factors Own. 4, Own. 5, Own.7,Own.8,Own.9,Own.11,and from (Own. 14: Own. 22)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of the owner is mitigation which can be represented 83.33% of the other risk response plans.
For contract: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for two factors (Cntr.6, and Cntr.7), mitigation for five factors from (Cntr.1: Cntr.5)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of the contract is mitigation which can be represented 71.43% of the other risk response plans.
For contractor: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for one factor (Co. 7), mitigation for twenty-three factors from (Co.1:Co.6), from (Co. 8:Co.18), and from (Co. 20:Co.25), and acceptance for one factor (Co. 19)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of contractor is mitigation which can be represented 92% of the other risk response plans.For labor: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [mitigation for eleven factor (Lbr. 1, Lbr. 2, Lbr. 5, and from (Lbr.7: Lbr.14)), transferring for one factor (Lbr. 16), and acceptance for one factor (Lbr. 17)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of labor is mitigation which can be represented 84.62% of the other risk response plans.
For external (corona virus effects): the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into          for facing risk factors of external (others) is acceptance which can be represented 95.45% of the other risk response plans.
For operational: the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [avoidance for one factor (Opt. 1), and mitigation for one factor (Opt. 2)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of operational is avoidance and mitigation which can be represented 50% of the other risk response plans.

Conclusions
Road construction is a challenging process with many crucial steps and risk variables that could cause cost overruns especially during COVID-19.Also, the impact of numerous risk factors exacerbated cost overruns in road construction as the COVID-19 epidemic spread throughout the world.Therefore, the study takes into account new unknown risk factors (corona virus impacts) and looks at the new level of risk factors due to it.
The analysis divided the risks connected to Egyptian road construction into eleven groups.It comprises design, consultant, owner, contractor, material, equipment, contract, labor risk, external (corona virus effects), external (others), and operational.Additionally, 162 risk variables are broken down into eleven major categories.
Overall, the research's conclusions demonstrate that: Excessive and illegal loads on the roadways being used In descending order with TRS, the following risk categories were given the highest priority: operation risk, external risk [Corona virus effects], external risk [Others], contract risk, equipment, material, contractor, design risk, owner, labor risk and consultant risk.In conclusion, the biggest influences on cost overruns of road projects are operational risk and external risk brought on by the impact of the corona virus.
A visual basic program for an Excel spreadsheet was created to construct the cost matrix for all risk categories.And, it can be used as a tool to update the risk score periodically to measure the highest and lowest risk during the project life cycle.In addition, the study focused on high and medium risk factors in putting a risk response plan and neglecting low risk to guide the organization in facing the risk factors.A risk response plan is only intended for medium and high risk by [avoid, mitigation, transfer, or accept] and describing the risk response plan for each risk.
Also, the study's findings indicate that the excessive and illegal loads on the roads, the fluctuating value of the Egyptian pound, and the accruing interest on loans to the contractor as a result of the work interruption caused by the corona virus are the high-risk factors that have the greatest impact on cost overruns for road projects.In addition, the cost matrix has also been used to display risk factor levels as a road map for responding quickly to high risks.

Fig. 1 .
Fig. 1.Flow chart for the process of the risk analysis.

Fig. 7 .
Fig. 7. Cost matrix for the categories of risk (Equipment).

Fig. 8 .
Fig. 8. Cost matrix for the categories of risk (Material).

Fig. 9 .
Fig. 9. Cost matrix for the categories of risk (Owner).
different strategies [acceptance for eleven factor from (Exc.1: Exc.11)].Therefore, the main solution for facing risk factors of external (corona virus effects) is acceptance which can be represented 100% of the other risk response plans.For external (others): the risk response plan for a contractor can be divided into different strategies [transferring for one factor (Exo. 18), and acceptance for twenty-one factor from (Exo.1: Exo.17), and from (Exo.19:Exo.22)].Therefore, the main solution

Fig. 10 .
Fig. 10.Cost matrix for the categories of risk (Contract).
[RR ¼ 1], Float Egyptian currency [RR ¼ 2], Accruing interest on loans to the contractor as a result of the Corona pandemic's work interruption [RR ¼ 3], The inflation rate and how it affects price increases [RR ¼ 4], Increased costs for materials [RR ¼ 5], Due to the shutdown, supplies have been delayed and stopped [RR ¼ 6], Increasing taxation [RR ¼ 7], Pipeline, electrical, and instrumentation cables interfering with the paths of the roads [RR ¼ 8], Difficulty getting money from banks in foreign currencies to pay for products that are unavailable in Egypt [RR ¼ 9], The modification of the lending financial strategy [RR ¼ 10].

Table 4 .
Analysis of risk factors (Design).

Table 5 .
Analysis of risk factors (Equipment).

Table 6 .
Analysis of risk factors (Material).

Table 7 .
Analysis of risk factors (Owner).

Table 8 .
Analysis of risk factors (Contract).

Table 10 .
Analysis of risk factors (Labor).